ASSSESSING THE INCIDENCE TREND OF MALARIA, MEASLES, MENINGITIS, AND PNEUMONIA IN THE FCT, NIGERIA

Abstract

Tropical regions of Africa are highly susceptible to various infectious diseases, which frequently manifest as epidemics. These outbreaks are often driven by climatic variations that enhance disease transmission rates. The study assesses the Incidence Trend of Malaria, Measles, Meningitis, and Pneumonia in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria. A multiple strata or hierarchical random sampling technique was employed. The study stratified the FCT based on the six area councils, from which purposive selection of both government and private hospitals was done. Only hospitals with available monthly records from 2005 to 2019 were included. The study used secondary data obtained from hospital records for the target diseases. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the incidence data, and time series and multiple regression tests were employed to analyse trends. The results shows that Malaria incidence peaked between June and December, with the highest in August, monthly incidence ranged above 1000 cases, with a positive correlation between malaria and relative humidity (R² = 0.4285). for measles, the peak period was from February to May, with March recording the highest number of cases (39.13). Incidence dropped significantly during the rainy months (R² = 0.4726). for meningitis, the highest incidence was recorded in March (55.8 cases). The disease was more prevalent during the dry season, with low occurrences during the rainy months (R² = 0.4285). and pneumonia, incidence was highest during the dry months (January to May), with peaks in June and July. Pneumonia showed a fluctuating pattern throughout the year, with a significant relationship with rainfall (p-value = 0.0245). The findings revealed that malaria is the most prevalent disease, particularly during the rainy season, while measles, meningitis, and pneumonia were more common during the dry season. Climatic factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall significantly influenced disease patterns, with a strong correlation between malaria incidence and relative humidity. Thus, concluding that climatic variability plays a critical role in the incidence of diseases in FCT, Nigeria. The study recommended that government should improve public health interventions, and health education campaigns are essential to raise awareness of disease prevention during peak seasons for these diseases.