CHILD MORTALITY IN NIGERIA: TRENDS, DETERMINANTS, AND DISPARITIES FROM 1990 TO 2021 – A DEMOGRAPHIC SYNTHESIS USING NDHS AND MICS DATA

Abstract

Child mortality remains a critical public health challenge in Nigeria, contributing 27% of global under-5 deaths in 2021 despite comprising less than 3% of the world’s population. This study analyzes trends and determinants of neonatal (0–28 days), infant (0–11 months), and under-5 (0–59 months) mortality from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). The NDHS shows under-5 mortality declined from 191 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 132 in 2018, while MICS reports a further drop to 102 by 2021—a 47% reduction over three decades. However, progress lags behind the global 53% decline and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2 target of 25 by 2030. Neonatal mortality stagnated, rising from 37 (2013) to 39 (2018) before falling to 31 (2021), reflecting weak postnatal care. Regional disparities are stark, with the North West at 187 versus the South East at 56 in 2018. Key determinants include socioeconomic factors (e.g., maternal education, poverty), environmental conditions (e.g., sanitation), healthcare access, cultural practices, and gender dynamics. Progress peaked between 2003–2013 due to MDG initiatives, but stalled thereafter amid conflict and systemic gaps. Nigeria’s high rates underscore the need for targeted interventions—enhancing postnatal care, reducing regional inequities, and improving literacy and infrastructure—to align with global benchmarks and mitigate the profound human cost of child mortality.